Volume 1,Issue 9
基于中国火电碳清单的全国碳市场配额盈缺预测研究
基于逐机组辨识燃料类型和容量，本文升级了前期开发的全国火电碳清单，包括全国火电逐机组燃料类型、发电煤耗、厂用电率、产能参数等。基于全国碳市场21-22年第二个履约周期的免费配额发放规则，建立免费强度配额规则的情景设计模型，可以自下而上地逐机组计算碳排放量与免费配额量。基于采集的多个电厂历史逐月供电、供热数据，以国家碳达峰行动规划为依据，本研究建立了全国火电分省出力预测模型。并用火电出力预测，结合全国火电碳清单，本文研究了不同免费强度配额规则下，面向第三、四履约期的火电产业碳配额盈缺情况，提供了一种火电行业计算碳配额盈缺预期的框架。
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