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Volume 3,Issue 9

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20 November 2025

气候变化背景下海洋基线与岛礁法律地位的再审视

兆航 佟1
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1 西澳大学, 中国
SE 2025 , 3(11), 105–111; https://doi.org/10.61369/SE.2025110038
© 2025 by the Author. Licensee Art and Design, USA. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution -Noncommercial 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC 4.0) ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ )
Abstract

海平面上升正在动摇以自然地理为前提的海洋法秩序。本文在梳理UNCLOS关于正常/直线基线、岛屿—岩礁区分与低潮高地效力的制度基础上,指出“基线随动”假设下出现的三重压力:管辖海域被动缩减、低高程岛礁可能“降格”、基点与界点不确定。在此背景下,本文评估“冻结基线”的规范依据与边界:以条约目的与后续实践提供解释空间,但应限于气候相关的自然变迁,排除人为填海等情形,并辅以坐标存档与可核验的科学证据。比较实践显示,小岛国与部分发达海洋国家形成支持稳定的合流;少数大国审慎观望。以南海为参照,本文主张在全球层面“总体支持、具体保留、积极塑造”,在区域层面推进“临时冻结/双冻结”与联合监测,在国内法层面固化已公布基线与证据标准,以规则供给与技术能力并举,最大限度维护中国海洋权益。

Keywords
气候变化
海平面上升
海洋基线
岛屿—岩礁
低潮高地
冻结基线
UNCLOS
南海
References

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[6] 图2 南海海平面长期上升趋势(1993—2025,mm/年)数据来源:University of Colorado Sea Level Research Group, 2025 Release 1(trend_mm_per_year)
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[16] 本表根据各国官方文件、国际组织声明与条约资料整理,主要来源包括:Australia–Tuvalu Falepili Union Treaty (2023)、PIF Declaration on Preserving Maritime Zones (2021)、Germany Submission to the ILC on Sea-Level Rise in Relation to International Law (2023)、UK Written Statement HCWS171 (2024) 等。
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