Volume 1,Issue 3
Fall 2025
基于Copula 函数方法的保费定价研究
农业生产面临产量波动和价格波动双重风险，农作物收入保险作为综合性风险管理工具日益受到重视。本研究通过模
拟分析和山东省大豆实证数据，发现产量与价格的负相关性能显著降低收入保险费率。引入Copula函数代替传统线
性相关方法，更精确地捕捉非线性关系。发现产量与价格间的负相关能显著降低保险费率，而正相关则大幅提高费
率，且保障水平越高，费率上升越快。建议完善小区域数据采集，利用风险对冲特性降低保费，建立多层次农业保险
体系，提高农户风险管理意识。
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